'Worst-case Scenario': IDF Warns Palestinians May Soon Fire on Attacking Israeli Settlers
Senior IDF officials fear an attack similar to the 2015 Duma arson and Palestinian revenge attacks on settler outposts. Another scenario involves Palestinians confronting settlers attacking their villages
Senior Israeli military officials have warned in private discussions with political leaders of early signs that a settler attack on Palestinians with mass casualties is becoming a realistic scenario. Moreover, they warned, such a mass-casualty event could drive uninvolved Palestinians into engaging in violent resistance across the West Bank.
Officials from the Israel Defense Forces said the result could be similar to the fatal 2015 arson attack, which killed three members of the Dawabsheh family. The army warned the prime minister and cabinet members that settlers are liable to engage in arson or use live fire against Palestinians.
Another extreme scenario involves Palestinians confronting settlers during an attack on one of their villages, amid a lack of protection from either the IDF or the Palestinian Authority. The army also fears retaliatory attacks on outposts or settlements.
Army officials are seeing many more settlers participating in West Bank riots, which have become more violent and they claim that these settlers are not afraid of the army. Moreover, the IDF believes rabbis are giving halakhic cover to and encouraging settlers to break the Shabbat and drive into villages, as happened in Qusra over the weekend.
At the same time, the military sees more and more groups of young Palestinians coming to defend villagers at friction points. At this stage, the Palestinians are unarmed, but the concern is that they will rush the settlers in a group. Another possibility is that a terror cell will carry out an attack in one of the settlements or outposts due to the escalation.
Senior security officials say the police are not engaging in any law enforcement on the ground. They note a severe operational disconnect between the army and the police. They also see a deep disconnect between Central Command chief Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth and Maj. Gen. Moshe Pinchi, the Israel Police's Judea and Samaria District commander. Military officials assert that Pinchi answers only to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, deliberately ignoring legal requirements to carry out instructions from Central Command.
The officers say the normalization of settler violence has become a real security threat. It stems partly from overt support by prominent settler rabbis and also from the Shin Bet security service's failure to issue them warnings. The Judea and Samaria District declined to respond to these claims.
"The worst-case scenarios are close to becoming reality – and very soon," military sources warned. They point out that the army's top brass are not properly implementing the lessons drawn from operational investigations. They say many officers fear personal political attacks and a loss of political backing. Consequently, warnings made privately inside the army are going unheard.
This tension is also evident within the IDF's top brass itself. There is no longer a consensus among the General Staff. Discussions are highly tense, given the sensitive political period ahead of the election, which will be followed by a round of senior appointments.
Security sources indicate that officers who have been earmarked for promotion enjoy the support of Defense Minister Israel Katz, Bezalel Smotrich in his capacity as minister within the Defense Ministry and the prime minister. Some in the General Staff accuse these officers of trying to create workplace stability to please the political leadership until the election. They also accuse some officers of pressing the chief of staff to use a heavy hand against the Palestinians.
Amid the security crisis, the Civil Administration has operated in recent weeks without a head and appeared to be facing functional collapse. However, a compromise was recently reached to appoint Col. (res.) Ilan Malka, under pressure from political leaders. He is perceived as their consensus candidate. Smotrich had vetoed the chief of staff's picks to fill the post temporarily – including Maj. Gen. (res.) Fares Attila or Maj. Gen. (res.) David Menachem. He even threatened to hold up defense funding if a person he supported was not appointed.
IDF officials say that the army chief was forced to compromise in the face of political pressure. They explain that he understood that the Civil Administration could not continue to operate without a permanent head during such a sensitive period. Officers were mostly concerned that politicians would assume unprecedented power in the West Bank. The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Maj. Gen. Yoram Halevi, recently presented at Katz's behest a plan to hand over the army's authority over criminal investigations to the police.
The army and the judicial system reject Katz's demand, arguing that the military is the sovereign power under international law. They note that it is legally and operationally impossible to transfer these powers to the police. The chief of staff opposes the move. Army officials are convinced that the politicians are trying to legitimize the cessation of enforcement against illegal outposts and prevent investigations of violent settlers.